Tough Call

Who’s going to win with the Redskins at Philly? Very tough call.

Picking winners is easier said than done. While I have been in the winner’s circle in office pools, so far this year I am only averaging 9 correct picks in my pool, without the spread. There are several factors going into making the prediction: stats, schedule, injuries, emotion and gut feeling.

On the surface the stats favor Philadelphia. After all, according to total yardage the Eagles rank 3rd on defense and 6th on offense; the Redskins are 14th and 9th respectively. Defensively the stats really favor Philly as they ranked 1st against the run (53.8 yards a game) and 11th defending the pass.

Yet, to consider just the stats and not the schedule would seem to be a mistake. The Redskins have played the 2nd (Dallas), 3rd (New Orleans), 4th (Giants) and 5th (Arizona) best offenses in the NFL. The Eagles have played Dallas and they have also faced 2 of the worst offenses , St. Louis (30) and Pittsburgh (29) and no one fears the 19th rank Bears offense either.
The schedule also favors the Skins on offense. Plus, the offensive stats are close. Philly averages 5.5 yards a play while the Skins are 5.4. Passes completed the Eagles are 65.8% while Washington is 65.6%.

If there is a big difference it is in rushing the ball. The Redskins are averaging 4.3 yards a carry while Philly averages 3.5. Part of this is due to Eagle running back Brian Westbrook who missed Sunday night’s Chicago game. Another part is a difference in West Coast philosophy. Philly really believes in pass first, second and sometimes third. The Redskins bring smash mouth rushing to their West Coast attack. This is the key to the game, if the Redskins can run they will be hard to beat.

Whether Westbrook plays is a big deal. His brother Byron, who is on the Redskins practice squad, says he will not play. Philly is saying he is doubtful, but he practiced. If he is practicing, count on him playing.

The key is emotion. Philly is 2-2 and really needs to win this game at home. The Redskins are on a roll and haven’t done anything wrong in 3 weeks. While they will come to play, there has to be a let down from last week’s upset of Dallas.

The gut feeling is Philadelphia.

Of course, the gut is only averaging 9 wins a week in no-points, pick-the-winner pool.